Binance says it has replenished 90% of the cryptocurrency stolen in Thursday's $6.3 billion hack and expects to reopen withdrawals on Sunday, Nov. 1, according to CoinDesk.
What Binance is saying
The 90% figure is up from roughly 80% in the exchange's previous update. Customer balances in bitcoin, ether, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC are now fully backed, Binance said.
The remaining 10% is the hard part. It consists of less liquid tokens that Binance said may take longer to acquire in the quantities it needs. The exchange is buying them through public markets and over-the-counter trades, working with industry partners to complete the purchases.
To cover the hole, Binance set aside more than $6.34 billion in company funds, including $5 billion held in the affected cryptocurrencies. That is separate from roughly $3 billion in stolen assets that partners managed to freeze. The losses are being absorbed through corporate funds, futures reserves, and its SAFU fund.
"Binance will absorb the financial impact of these stolen funds, not our users," the exchange's update reads.
The part worth watching
Here is where I get skeptical. Every number in that update comes from Binance itself. The exchange is grading its own homework, and the homework is a $6.3 billion hole.
One detail from the CoinDesk report matters more than the rest. Its review of Binance's earlier reserve disclosures found that wallets drained in the attack were among those the exchange had listed as backing customer holdings. The shortfall was real, and it sat in the exact places users were told their funds were covered.
Binance has posted an updated reserve snapshot, with cryptographic proof of its reserves due Nov. 3. That proof is the date to circle. A snapshot is a claim. A cryptographic attestation is something outsiders can actually check, at least in theory. Whether it convinces anyone is another question.
North Korea's TraderTraitor group has been linked to the attack, per the report. If that attribution holds, the frozen $3 billion becomes a geopolitical story as much as a balance sheet one.
My read
The good faith version: Binance is doing what an exchange should do after a breach. It is eating the loss, keeping user balances whole, and moving fast. Two days from a $6.3 billion hack to 90% replenishment is genuinely fast.
The less generous version: this recovery only works because one company is big enough to write a $6.34 billion check on short notice. That is impressive and kind of unsettling at the same time. Until the Nov. 3 proof lands, the whole thing rests on trusting Binance's own accounting. And the last 10% depends on whether thin markets can absorb a buyer that size, which Binance itself conceded when it said those tokens may take longer to acquire.
Nobody outside Binance knows if the numbers hold. Sunday's withdrawals and the Nov. 3 proof will say more than any update post.